The focus of our work is improving the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics. The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are experiencing rapid surface melting and increased freshwater runoff, contributing significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the mechanisms driving snowmelt in these regions is crucial. ERA5, a widely used reanalysis dataset in polar climate studies, offers extensive climate variables and global data assimilation. However, its snowmelt model employs an energy imbalance approach that may oversimplify the complexity of surface melt. In contrast, the Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model incorporates additional physical processes, such as snow accumulation, firn densification, and meltwater percolation/refreezing, providing a more detailed representation of surface melt dynamics. In this research, we focus on analyzing surface snowmelt dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet using feature attribution for anomalous melt events in ERA5 and GEMB models. We present a novel unsupervised attribution method leveraging counterfactual explanation method to analyze detected anomalies in ERA5 and GEMB. Our anomaly detection results are validated using MEaSUREs ground-truth data, and the attributions are evaluated against established feature ranking methods, including XGBoost, Shapley values, and Random Forest. Our attribution framework identifies the physics behind each model and the climate features driving melt anomalies. These findings demonstrate the utility of our attribution method in enhancing the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics.

The spatiotemporally continuous data of normalized difference snow index (NDSI) are key to understanding the mechanisms of snow occurrence and development as well as the patterns of snow distribution changes. However, the presence of clouds, particularly prevalent in polar regions such as the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), introduces a significant number of missing pixels in the MODIS NDSI daily data. To address this issue, this study proposes the utilization of a spatiotemporal extreme gradient boosting (STXGBoost) model generate a comprehensive NDSI dataset. In the proposed model, various input variables are carefully selected, encompassing terrain features, geometry-related parameters, and surface property variables. Moreover, the model incorporates spatiotemporal variation information, enhancing its capacity for reconstructing the NDSI dataset. Verification results demonstrate the efficacy of the STXGBoost model, with a coefficient of determination of 0.962, root mean square error of 0.030, mean absolute error of 0.011, and negligible bias (0.0001). Furthermore, simulation comparisons involving missing data and cross-validation with Landsat NDSI data illustrate the model's capability to accurately reconstruct the spatial distribution of NDSI data. Notably, the proposed model surpasses the performance of traditional machine learning models, showcasing superior NDSI predictive capabilities. This study highlights the potential of leveraging auxiliary data to reconstruct NDSI in GrIS, with implications for broader applications in other regions. The findings offer valuable insights for the reconstruction of NDSI remote sensing data, contributing to the further understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics in snow-covered regions.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has emerged as a significant contributor to global sea level rise, primarily due to increased meltwater runoff. Supraglacial lakes, which form on the ice sheet surface during the summer months, can impact ice sheet dynamics and mass loss; thus, better understanding these lakes' seasonal evolution and dynamics is an important task. This study presents a computationally efficient time series classification approach that uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) of the Reconstructed Phase Spaces (RPSs) to identify supraglacial lakes based on their seasonal evolution: 1) those that refreeze at the end of the melt season, 2) those that drain during the melt season, and 3) those that become buried, remaining liquid insulated a few meters beneath the surface. Our approach uses time series data from the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites, which utilize microwave and visible radiation, respectively. Evaluated on a GrIS-wide dataset, the RPS-GMM model, trained on a single representative sample per class, achieves 85.46% accuracy with Sentinel-1 data alone and 89.70% with combined Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. This performance significantly surpasses existing machine learning and deep learning models which require a large training data. The results demonstrate the robustness of the RPS-GMM model in capturing the complex temporal dynamics of supraglacial lakes with minimal training data.

The Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) will announce today that it's seeking proposals to work on systems for two related climate tipping points. One is the accelerating melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which could raise sea levels dramatically. The other is the weakening of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, a huge current rotating counterclockwise south of Greenland that may have played a role in triggering the Little Ice Age around the 14th century. The goal of the five-year program will be to reduce scientific uncertainty about when these events could occur, how they would affect the planet and the species on it, and over what period those effects might develop and persist. In the end, ARIA hopes to deliver a proof of concept demonstrating that early warning systems can be "affordable, sustainable, and justified." No such dedicated system exists today, though there's considerable research being done to better understand the likelihood and consequences of surpassing these and other climate tipping points.

Captivating images capture by custom-built drones have revealed the damage to the Greenland Ice Sheet that is being caused by rising global temperatures. The images, which have been taken as part of an EU-funded project to track changes in the world's second-largest ice sheet, are the first drone-based observations of how fractures form and expand under meltwater lakes. The expanding fractures cause catastrophic lake drainages, during which huge quantities of water are transferred to below the surface of the ice. Changes in ice flow occur on a much shorter timescales than were previously considered possible, said the research team, which was led by the University of Cambridge. 'It's possible we've under-estimated the effects of these glaciers on the overall instability of the Greenland Ice Sheet,' said drone pilot Tom Chudley, a PhD student at the University of Cambridge's Scott Polar Research Institute.